Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Number Crunching on Run DMc

The upcoming 2009 season has consumed my thoughts. The one guy on the Raiders' squad who I sincerely believe is on the cusp of stardom is running back Darren McFadden. In his rookie campaign, Run DMc gave the Nation a brief glimpse of his talent in game #2 at Kansas City. In this early season contest, McFadden demonstrated his big play ability, breakaway speed, and dynamic playmaking skills. Of course, as we all know, late in the game he suffered his first turf toe injury and he simply wasn't the same player for the remainder of the season. Although he battled 2 turf toe injuries and played fairly well at less than 100%, his inconsistent reps. prevented him from getting in a true rhythm.
Going into the 2009 season, these are the numbers I project for #20:

Based on the Raiders getting approximately 60 offensive snaps per game, I predict the Raiders will run the ball about 33 times per game (33 runs to 27 passes or a 55% to 45% run pass ration).
With McFadden as the lead back, I'm guessing that he will get 288 carries for the season (18 rush attempts per game average which is 55% of the rushing load).
Since the Raiders passing attack is a work in progress with the development of Russell and some of the younger WRs (DHB, Murphy, Schillens, JLH), I would anticipate McFadden being an integral weapon in the passing playbook. Split out wide, set in motion, circling out of the backfield, delayed screens are some of the ways the Raiders will utilize McFadden's skills and to create favorable matchups. A conservative estimate of the number of balls thrown to McFadden should fall in the range of 3-6 per game.
Number Crunching / Predictions:

Rush Attempts Per Game: 18
Rush Attempts Season: 288
Yards per carry: 4.5
Total Rushing Yards: 1,296 yards
Rushing TDs: 6
Receptions: 64
Yards per reception: 9.0
Total reception yards: 586
Receiving TDs: 4
Total TDs: 10
Total Yards: 1,882
To top it off, I expect McFadden to have 2-4 pass attempts out of the wild cat formation. There is no doubt in my mind that the Raiders coaching staff needs to use McFadden in a variety of creative ways to be the engine to the offense. Mixing and matching the RBs, using different formations and sets, and forcing the opponent to account for McFadden are some of the keys to a successful season. I'm really excited about the Raiders developing their core skill players on offense. The Raiders 2009 offense has the potential to become a special unit and McFadden is the fulcrum for making it a reality. I don't discount the fact that Russell needs to play an instrumental role in the offense's success. Yet, I firmly believe that the dynamic playmaking ability of McFadden will make Russell's transition into a franchise type QB that much easier.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Whoa, you can tell all that just by making shit up. You ARE a god.

I can't wait for the season. I'm rooting DMC, but this is just a waste of HTML.

If my Aunt had balls.....

Let's just let it play out.


8:13 AM  
Blogger Calico Jack said...

JSpicoli: These are just friendly, harmless PREDICTIONS ... nothing more, nothing less.

Relax, amigo and take a deep breath. This is a blog not the Associated Press. CJ :-D

8:27 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have seen this JSpicoli on other raider forums acting all arrogant, and taking things way too seriously. Lighten up Spicoli! Its just a damn blog!!

Sarasota Raider

4:47 PM  
Blogger Calico Jack said...

A blogger making a few predictions ... Yup, the earth is spinning of it's axis!

6:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CJ Blogger where you the guy touting and wanting the Raiders to draft Gholston a few years ago over McFadden?

7:53 PM  
Blogger Calico Jack said...

Anon -

Yes, I did a post on Gholston touting him as a potential prospect for the Raiders based on his career at OSU, his combine, and our drafting needs. What's your point? I don't pretend to be a draft analyst ... I'm merely a Raider fan and blogger. If the thrust of your post was to poke fun at me, then congratulations. The bottom line for me is that any guy who posts anonymously is a spineless jellyfish anyways so a drive by posts like yours is completely meaningless and irrelevant.

10:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Calico Jack,

Not meaning to be spineless did not know leaving a name was a prerequisite for replying to your blog.

No need to be so grouchy and sensitive, the intent was not to “poke fun”. It was merely a little healthy debate and banter. A little back and forth with the blogger is part of the attraction of reading blogs versus website and newspaper articles

My two scents Busch is more consistent, stronger, as good hands, much better vision, with obviously less speed. I say Bush is the real stud in waiting in the backfield.

Sorry if you perceived my post as offensive. No offense was meant.


11:11 AM  
Blogger Calico Jack said...


No, there are no requirements to leave your name to post.

What you have to understand is the vast majority of people who post anonymously are (a) too lazy to get a blogger account which is free and takes 2 minutes (b) too lazy to sign their name at the bottom of their post which takes 2 seconds (c) purposely are anonymous so that they can ruffle a few feathers without being accountable for their words.

Point (c) is the definition of spineless.

The other larger point about blogging and having a healthy discussion and debate that is meaninful and informative is to know who you are replying to. If you go anonymous it defeats the purpose.

In reference to your original post ... if you want to have a have a "healthy debate" then I'm up for it. The way you worded it didn't signal a desire for a debate.

2:21 PM  
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