Thursday, December 14, 2006

Unpack Your Bags Doug













With the re-signing of WR Doug Gabriel, I did a little research on the 4 primary receivers (Curry, Whitted, Gabriel, Moss) that have been hotly debated and discussed on various Raiders blogs, forums, and mainstream new sources.

I came up with some very interesting numbers. Of course this comparative analysis doesn't take into account all of the variables (ie. playing time) but it does shed some new light on the actual value of each player.

The first 3 categories (DVOA, DVOA Rank, Catch %) were sourced from the site Football Outsiders

The 1st statistic is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance.

The 2nd statistic is DVOA Rank. This ranking includes the entire league's primary receivers 1-80 who have enough playing time to be analyzed.

The 3rd statistic is Catch % which represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes. The other statistics are self explanatory.

Ron Curry
DVOA: 12.3%
DVOA Rank: 23/80
Catch %: 64%
37 receptions, 487 yards, 13.2 ypc, 1 TD

Doug Gabriel
DVOA: -0.9%
DVOA Rank: 48/80
Catch %: 54%
25 receptions, 344 yards, 13.8 ypc, 3 TDs

Randy Moss
DVOA: -12.8%
DVOA Rank: 64/80
Catch %: 43%
42 receptions, 553 yards, 13.2 ypc, 3 TDs

Alvis Whitted
DVOA: -23.7%
DVOA Rank: 76/80
Catch %: 46%
27 receptions, 299 yards, 11.1 ypc, 0 TDs

Curry has the highest DVOA rating & ranking and catch % while Whitted has the lowest DVOA rating & ranking and the 3rd worst of the 4 receivers in terms of catch %. If we had all 4 receivers on the roster and used the comparative numbers above (value, catch %, productivity), the depth chart would be:

1. Curry
2. Gabriel
3. Moss
4. Whitted

I'm not implying that Gabriel is the greatest thing since sliced bread. However, based on these numbers, the opinion of "We traded Gabriel and the Patriots released him ...hmmm, he must not be any good" just simply isn't true. Based on what I've seen this year, I would be very comfortable having Curry and Gabriel as our #1 and #2 receivers, releasing Whitted, trading Moss and Porter, developing Morant, and reassigning Madsen as a WR.

13 Comments:

Blogger PantyRaider said...

CalicoJack: Great #'s Bro:
So, can we figure out why he was traded in the first place and by who and why he was brought back and by who???? I would say the Pat's released him to save value on the trade....but that is difficult to understand because now they are short of WR's aproaching the play-offs....I would say it is a Positive that the Raiders brought him back but why was he released???

Question: Is it resonable that Shell would have played Gabrial all pre-season with the first team to Show-case him for a trade...and than go against SD in the opener without the guy that he was starting??? After spending all that time to get the "O" playing together...why would a coach want to do that??? Was that going to make Moss happy if the guy who was taking presure of him was suddenly gone???

To me it is more resonable to believe that Gabril was traded out from under CoachShell against his wish....for what ever reason and by who I do not know for sure but the "Mole" thing just keeps comming up to me and the evidance is mounting....Shell could have ShowCased Gabrial with the second team if he was trade bait and not put so much preasure on his "O" to adjust to his loss....Am I beating a "DeadHorse" to "Death"....probibly!!!

PantyRaider....StuckInMyMind!!!!

9:06 PM  
Blogger Calico Jack said...

I don't think we will ever find out why Gabriel was traded and why Curry doesn't start.

Both decisions were mistakes and impacted our team's chances of winning.

In a way we are all beating a dead horse. I believe the important thing is to welcome Gabes back with open arms. Gabriel (and Curry) should play a vital role in our improvement next year.

9:24 PM  
Anonymous raider00 said...

Calico,

It's one thing to make a mistake, and start Whitted over more talented WR's on the team at the beginning of the season.

But 13 games have been played, and everyone in the Raider Nation knows that Whitted is no good.

Only Al, Art, and the gang are holding on to their fantasy.

I think the only reason Gabriel was brought back, was because Curry, Morant, & Madsen, needed a bridge partner.

9:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CJ,

Great stats really interesting you should work for scouts inc. on ESPN website. My only comment would be that it does not account for the fact that like him or not Moss is often triple covered. Not an excuse for drops and going half speed but he does draw a lot of attention.

I too would not be sad to see a core group of Curry, Gabriel and Morant next year.

I read on another site that Gabriel's contract goes to 1 million next year, I am not sure if the Raiders will pick it up at the number unfortunetly.

Lastly, a little tip in case you were not aware on CBS sportsline if you go to the team pages http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/OAK and read "strategy and personnel", as well "inside slant" it gives very good analysis of the team--unbiased and informative.

Finally, CJ I can wait to read your blog on Monday after the Raiders beat St.Louis----please, please, please

Have a good weekend

Florida Raider

7:12 AM  
Blogger x said...

These stats are just further proof that Art Shell has questionable personnel management skills. Man, I can't imagine another season with him at the helm....and I was actually excited about his return to the Raiders.

And someone please tell me why he didn't throw the red flag on the Whitted fumble (incomplete pass?) early in the Cincy game.

Don't get too excited about Gabriel being back either. He was just signed for insurance in case of injuries and I doubt we'll see him on the field much at all.

9:31 PM  
Blogger PantyRaider said...

FloridaRaider:
Question....when a player is traded and released and claimed off the wire does he keep his same contract.....if that is the case than the Raiders did the Pats a favior by claiming Gabrial so his cap money does not count against them after this season....or the Patts released him so they do not have to pay that money and up the trade cost to the Raiders if he stays on the team....and if the Raiders don't claim him he becomes a free agent....alot to consider..

PantyRaider..TryToMakeSense!!!!

9:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some problems with thsese stats mainly because the Raiders offense is pathetic.

1. Catch Percentage does not take in to account the amount of coverage a WR is getting and the length of the passes that are attempted his way. Moss gets far more coverage and generally runs deeper routes than Curry, so their catch percentages are like comparing apples and organges.

2. Using Doug Gabriel's stats with the Patriots where he was playing with Tom Brady is unfair to all 3 Raider WR you list. I think it's safe to say that all would be much more productive in New England as opposed to Oakland.

9:50 PM  
Blogger Calico Jack said...

Anon 9:50 - Catch % isn't the only statistic listed. It is one among many. Yes, you are right there are many variables that might skew certain numbers.

However, if you look at the totality of ALL the production numbers it is very clear that Gabriel & Curry have out-performed Moss & Whitted this year.

Another factor to consider is the fact that Gabriel's snaps were limited and he was learning a new system. Even though he played less than Whitted he produced more.

Finally, the DVOA Ranking measures the true performance value of a WR. Whitted ranked 76 out of a possible 80 WRs while Curry was valued at 23/80 and Gabriel 48/80.

10:31 PM  
Anonymous Mad Stork 83 said...

I completely agree about Madsen. Why convert him to TE when he hasn't even had the chance to show what he can do at his natural position? I think he could be a very effective WR...

5:24 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In answer to pantyraiders's question Gabriel is actually scheduled to make 1.7 million next year not 1 million my mistake.

Only signing bonuses and guaranteed portions of contract count against the cap from my own rudimentary understanding of how things work. Signing bonuses get prorated over the life of the contract as it pretains to the cap.

In other words unless the Raiders think Gabriel is worth 1.7 they will cut him. Even if they think he is worth that kind of money they will probably sign him to a two or three year deal with lower base salaries upfront and some sort of signing bonus-this is what is called a cap friendly deal.

For more info check out this website: http://www.askthecommish.com/salarycap/faq.asp


Regards

Florida Raider

8:28 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A recieving core of Curry, Gabriel, Morant would be the worst in the NFL. Curry is a decent number 2 right now, Gabriel is a decent 3 and Morant shouldnt even be in the league. Listen, just because a guy is on the Raiders doesnt mean they are good. I know that is hard for you guys to realize, but its true. I really wonder about you people sometimes, a few of you really do need mental help.

10:52 AM  
Blogger PantyRaider said...

FloridaRaider:
Thanks for the info...so if NE kept him for next year that would have been the cost....it makes sense that they cut him to save money....I am glad to have him back....he never should have left....hope to see him get more playing time tomorro....

PantyRaider....Wait-n-See!!

4:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MY ? IS WHY WEEK AFTER WEEK DOES THE STAFF STARTS, THE LEAST PRODUCTIVE PLAYERS DONT COACHES HAVE THESE TYPES OF #S

9:11 PM  

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