Unpack Your Bags Doug
With the re-signing of WR Doug Gabriel, I did a little research on the 4 primary receivers (Curry, Whitted, Gabriel, Moss) that have been hotly debated and discussed on various Raiders blogs, forums, and mainstream new sources.
I came up with some very interesting numbers. Of course this comparative analysis doesn't take into account all of the variables (ie. playing time) but it does shed some new light on the actual value of each player.
The first 3 categories (DVOA, DVOA Rank, Catch %) were sourced from the site Football Outsiders
The 1st statistic is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance.
The 2nd statistic is DVOA Rank. This ranking includes the entire league's primary receivers 1-80 who have enough playing time to be analyzed.
The 3rd statistic is Catch % which represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes. The other statistics are self explanatory.
Ron Curry
DVOA: 12.3%
DVOA Rank: 23/80
Catch %: 64%
37 receptions, 487 yards, 13.2 ypc, 1 TD
Doug Gabriel
DVOA: -0.9%
DVOA Rank: 48/80
Catch %: 54%
25 receptions, 344 yards, 13.8 ypc, 3 TDs
Randy Moss
DVOA: -12.8%
DVOA Rank: 64/80
Catch %: 43%
42 receptions, 553 yards, 13.2 ypc, 3 TDs
Alvis Whitted
DVOA: -23.7%
DVOA Rank: 76/80
Catch %: 46%
27 receptions, 299 yards, 11.1 ypc, 0 TDs
Curry has the highest DVOA rating & ranking and catch % while Whitted has the lowest DVOA rating & ranking and the 3rd worst of the 4 receivers in terms of catch %. If we had all 4 receivers on the roster and used the comparative numbers above (value, catch %, productivity), the depth chart would be:
1. Curry
2. Gabriel
3. Moss
4. Whitted
I'm not implying that Gabriel is the greatest thing since sliced bread. However, based on these numbers, the opinion of "We traded Gabriel and the Patriots released him ...hmmm, he must not be any good" just simply isn't true. Based on what I've seen this year, I would be very comfortable having Curry and Gabriel as our #1 and #2 receivers, releasing Whitted, trading Moss and Porter, developing Morant, and reassigning Madsen as a WR.
posted by Calico Jack at 6:46 PM
10 Comments:
I don't think we will ever find out why Gabriel was traded and why Curry doesn't start.
Both decisions were mistakes and impacted our team's chances of winning.
In a way we are all beating a dead horse. I believe the important thing is to welcome Gabes back with open arms. Gabriel (and Curry) should play a vital role in our improvement next year.
Calico,
It's one thing to make a mistake, and start Whitted over more talented WR's on the team at the beginning of the season.
But 13 games have been played, and everyone in the Raider Nation knows that Whitted is no good.
Only Al, Art, and the gang are holding on to their fantasy.
I think the only reason Gabriel was brought back, was because Curry, Morant, & Madsen, needed a bridge partner.
CJ,
Great stats really interesting you should work for scouts inc. on ESPN website. My only comment would be that it does not account for the fact that like him or not Moss is often triple covered. Not an excuse for drops and going half speed but he does draw a lot of attention.
I too would not be sad to see a core group of Curry, Gabriel and Morant next year.
I read on another site that Gabriel's contract goes to 1 million next year, I am not sure if the Raiders will pick it up at the number unfortunetly.
Lastly, a little tip in case you were not aware on CBS sportsline if you go to the team pages http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/OAK and read "strategy and personnel", as well "inside slant" it gives very good analysis of the team--unbiased and informative.
Finally, CJ I can wait to read your blog on Monday after the Raiders beat St.Louis----please, please, please
Have a good weekend
Florida Raider
These stats are just further proof that Art Shell has questionable personnel management skills. Man, I can't imagine another season with him at the helm....and I was actually excited about his return to the Raiders.
And someone please tell me why he didn't throw the red flag on the Whitted fumble (incomplete pass?) early in the Cincy game.
Don't get too excited about Gabriel being back either. He was just signed for insurance in case of injuries and I doubt we'll see him on the field much at all.
Some problems with thsese stats mainly because the Raiders offense is pathetic.
1. Catch Percentage does not take in to account the amount of coverage a WR is getting and the length of the passes that are attempted his way. Moss gets far more coverage and generally runs deeper routes than Curry, so their catch percentages are like comparing apples and organges.
2. Using Doug Gabriel's stats with the Patriots where he was playing with Tom Brady is unfair to all 3 Raider WR you list. I think it's safe to say that all would be much more productive in New England as opposed to Oakland.
Anon 9:50 - Catch % isn't the only statistic listed. It is one among many. Yes, you are right there are many variables that might skew certain numbers.
However, if you look at the totality of ALL the production numbers it is very clear that Gabriel & Curry have out-performed Moss & Whitted this year.
Another factor to consider is the fact that Gabriel's snaps were limited and he was learning a new system. Even though he played less than Whitted he produced more.
Finally, the DVOA Ranking measures the true performance value of a WR. Whitted ranked 76 out of a possible 80 WRs while Curry was valued at 23/80 and Gabriel 48/80.
I completely agree about Madsen. Why convert him to TE when he hasn't even had the chance to show what he can do at his natural position? I think he could be a very effective WR...
In answer to pantyraiders's question Gabriel is actually scheduled to make 1.7 million next year not 1 million my mistake.
Only signing bonuses and guaranteed portions of contract count against the cap from my own rudimentary understanding of how things work. Signing bonuses get prorated over the life of the contract as it pretains to the cap.
In other words unless the Raiders think Gabriel is worth 1.7 they will cut him. Even if they think he is worth that kind of money they will probably sign him to a two or three year deal with lower base salaries upfront and some sort of signing bonus-this is what is called a cap friendly deal.
For more info check out this website: http://www.askthecommish.com/salarycap/faq.asp
Regards
Florida Raider
A recieving core of Curry, Gabriel, Morant would be the worst in the NFL. Curry is a decent number 2 right now, Gabriel is a decent 3 and Morant shouldnt even be in the league. Listen, just because a guy is on the Raiders doesnt mean they are good. I know that is hard for you guys to realize, but its true. I really wonder about you people sometimes, a few of you really do need mental help.
MY ? IS WHY WEEK AFTER WEEK DOES THE STAFF STARTS, THE LEAST PRODUCTIVE PLAYERS DONT COACHES HAVE THESE TYPES OF #S
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