With the re-signing of WR Doug Gabriel
, I did a little research on the 4 primary receivers (Curry, Whitted, Gabriel, Moss) that have been hotly debated and discussed on various Raiders blogs, forums, and mainstream new sources.
I came up with some very interesting numbers. Of course this comparative analysis doesn't take into account all of the variables (ie. playing time) but it does shed some new light on the actual value of each player.
The first 3 categories (DVOA, DVOA Rank, Catch %) were sourced from the site Football Outsiders
The 1st statistic is DVOA
, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance.
The 2nd statistic is DVOA Rank
. This ranking includes the entire league's primary receivers 1-80 who have enough playing time to be analyzed.
The 3rd statistic is Catch %
which represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes. The other statistics are self explanatory.Ron Curry
DVOA Rank: 23/80
Catch %: 64%
37 receptions, 487 yards, 13.2 ypc, 1 TDDoug Gabriel
DVOA Rank: 48/80
Catch %: 54%
25 receptions, 344 yards, 13.8 ypc, 3 TDsRandy Moss
DVOA Rank: 64/80
Catch %: 43%
42 receptions, 553 yards, 13.2 ypc, 3 TDsAlvis Whitted
DVOA Rank: 76/80
Catch %: 46%
27 receptions, 299 yards, 11.1 ypc, 0 TDs
Curry has the highest DVOA rating & ranking and catch % while Whitted has the lowest DVOA rating & ranking and the 3rd worst of the 4 receivers in terms of catch %. If we had all 4 receivers on the roster and used the comparative numbers above (value, catch %, productivity), the depth chart would be:
I'm not implying that Gabriel is the greatest thing since sliced bread. However, based on these numbers, the opinion of "We traded Gabriel and the Patriots released him ...hmmm, he must not be any good" just simply isn't true. Based on what I've seen this year, I would be very comfortable having Curry and Gabriel as our #1 and #2 receivers, releasing Whitted, trading Moss and Porter, developing Morant, and reassigning Madsen as a WR.